For Buyers

Rent vs. Buy on the Peninsula

Compare 5-year financial outcomes for renting and buying on the SF Peninsula. Includes appreciation, mortgage paydown, tax benefits, and opportunity cost.

5-Year Comparison

Run the numbers

Buying (5 years)

Down Payment
Mortgage Payments (P+I)
Property Tax + Insurance
Maintenance (1%/yr)
Total Cash Out
Home Equity (sale price)
Loan Balance
Net Position After 5 Yrs

Renting (5 years)

Year 1 Rent
Year 5 Rent
Renter's Insurance
Total Cash Out
Down Payment Invested @ 6%
Net Position After 5 Yrs
Estimates only. Assumes 30-year fixed mortgage, 1.15% effective property tax rate, 0.35% annual home insurance, 1% annual maintenance, 6% selling cost on the buy side, and 6% annual return on the down payment if invested instead. Tax benefits not modeled. Lisa M. Lum and Coldwell Banker Realty do not warrant accuracy. User assumes all risk.

Rent vs. Buy on the Peninsula

Why does renting sometimes beat buying on paper, even on the Peninsula?

Two reasons. First, Peninsula price-to-rent ratios are some of the highest in the country, often 35x to 45x annual rent versus a national average of 15x to 20x. Second, if you invest your would-be down payment in a diversified portfolio, the long-term return can rival or beat appreciation in flat market cycles. Buying wins when you stay 7+ years and the market appreciates at or above the long-term Peninsula average.

What if I'm planning to stay less than 5 years?

Buying for under 5 years is rarely the financially correct choice on the Peninsula. Closing costs (roughly 2% buy + 6% sell = 8% round-trip) eat most of the appreciation in a typical 4% per year market. The exception is a strong-appreciation cycle or a property in an A+ school zone where you also save private school tuition.

Does this calculator account for the mortgage interest deduction?

Not directly, because the 2017 SALT cap and standard deduction increase eliminated this benefit for most middle-income households. For high-earners on the Peninsula, the mortgage interest and property tax deduction can still produce $5K to $20K per year in tax savings depending on loan size and bracket. Talk to your CPA for a precise figure.

Want a tailored analysis for a specific home?

Lisa runs personalized rent vs. buy comparisons using actual market comps, your tax bracket, and your time horizon.

Request a Personal Analysis