March 2026 Silicon Valley Housing Market Report: San Mateo County Surges, Santa Clara Steadies

March is typically the month when Silicon Valley's housing market reveals its hand for the year ahead. Buyers who waited through winter make their moves, sellers list with spring confidence, and the data begins to tell a story that goes beyond seasonal noise. This March, the story is one of divergence: San Mateo County posted some of the strongest year-over-year gains we have seen in years, while Santa Clara County settled into a steadier, more measured pace.

Both counties remain firmly in seller's market territory. But the texture of each market, the speed of sales, the degree of overbidding, and the types of properties driving activity, looks meaningfully different depending on which side of the county line you are standing on. Understanding these differences is essential whether you are pricing a home for sale, writing an offer, or simply trying to gauge what your property is worth today.

How Much Did Home Prices Rise in San Mateo County in March 2026?

San Mateo County home prices rose significantly in March 2026. The median sold price across all property types reached $1,755,000, a 9.69% increase from $1,600,000 in March 2025. The average sold price climbed even more sharply, up 12.87% to $2,460,182.

These are not small movements. A nearly 10% jump in median price in a single year, in a market that was already among the most expensive in California, reflects genuine demand pressure against limited supply. Year-to-date, the county has recorded 892 closed sales through March, up 9.05% from 818 during the same period last year. More homes are selling, and they are selling for more money.

The list-to-sale price ratio hit 107%, meaning the average home sold for 7% above its asking price. That ratio has ticked up from 106.8% a year ago, confirming that competitive bidding remains the norm rather than the exception.

City-by-City: Where the Action Was Hottest

Looking at single family homes specifically, the county median reached $2,177,500 with an overall list-to-sale ratio of 109%. But the averages mask enormous variation by city.

• Atherton: $14.8M median (7 sold), 103% of list price, 2.8 months of inventory. The ultra-luxury segment continues to move, driven by AI wealth from companies like NVIDIA and OpenAI.
• Hillsborough: $7.15M median (10 sold), 105% of list, 2.7 months of inventory.
• Menlo Park: $3.5M median (26 sold), 110% of list, just 1.6 months of inventory. One of the tightest markets on the Peninsula.
• San Carlos: $3.17M median (24 sold), 105% of list, 0.8 months of inventory. With under one month of supply, San Carlos is one of the most competitive markets in the entire Bay Area right now.
• Burlingame: $3.28M median (19 sold), 108% of list, 0.9 months of inventory.
• San Mateo: $2.38M median (36 sold), 111% of list, 1.4 months of inventory. The highest overbidding percentage among mid-Peninsula cities.
• Foster City: $2.25M median (10 sold), 106% of list, 0.8 months of inventory.
• Redwood City: $2.47M median (41 sold), 107% of list, 1.8 months of inventory. The largest volume of sales in the county.

The common thread across San Mateo County: every major city has less than 3 months of inventory, and most have less than 2. In a market this tight, well-priced homes in good condition continue to attract multiple offers within the first week.

Days on market tell a similar story. The county-wide median was 12 days, with an average of 25. That average is up slightly from 22 days a year ago, but the increase is concentrated in the higher price tiers. Homes under $2 million are still moving in under two weeks.

What Is Happening in the Santa Clara County Housing Market?

Santa Clara County's March numbers tell a story of stability rather than acceleration. The median sold price across all property types was $1,680,000, up just 0.84% from $1,666,000 a year ago. The average sold price actually dipped slightly, down 1.17% to $2,054,860.

That does not mean the market is cooling. Sales volume was up 4.85% year over year, with 1,017 homes closing in March compared to 970 in March 2025. Buyers are active. But the pricing dynamic is different from San Mateo County's, reflecting a larger, more varied market with a wider range of property types and price points.

The list-to-sale ratio was 105.3%, down from 106.7% a year ago. Overbidding is still common, but it is less aggressive than it was 12 months ago, and notably less aggressive than what we are seeing across the county line in San Mateo.

The most significant shift: days on market. The average jumped 53% year over year, from 17 days to 26 days. The median increased from 8 to 11. Homes are still selling, but buyers are taking more time, conducting more due diligence, and in some segments, negotiating more assertively.

Single Family Homes: City Breakdown

The single family market in Santa Clara County recorded 1,159 new listings and 710 closed sales in March, with a county-wide median of $2,080,188 and an average list-to-sale ratio of 106%.

• Palo Alto: $3.71M median (32 sold), 108% of list, average 20 days on market. The Palo Alto market remains one of the strongest in the county, with Professorville and Old Palo Alto continuing to command premium prices.
• Los Altos: $4.58M median (26 sold), 106% of list, average 13 days on market.
• Los Altos Hills: $5.08M median (8 sold), 102% of list. The estate market here moves more slowly but steadily.
• Saratoga: $4.15M median (24 sold), 108% of list, average 26 days on market.
• Cupertino: $3.68M median (22 sold), 109% of list. School district demand continues to drive a premium.
• Mountain View: $2.7M median (25 sold), 112% of list, average 14 days on market. The highest overbidding in the county, likely fueled by proximity to Google, OpenAI's new campus, and other major tech employers.
• Sunnyvale: $2.86M median (47 sold), 111% of list. The largest volume of sales among mid-tier cities.
• Santa Clara: $2.04M median (45 sold), 108% of list, average 13 days.
• San Jose: $1.74M median (360 sold), 106% of list. San Jose accounts for roughly half of all single family sales in the county and remains the most accessible entry point for buyers.

The Condo and Townhome Market

The condo and townhome segment in Santa Clara County presents a different picture entirely. With 607 new listings and 321 closed sales, the median price landed at $995,000 with a 102% list-to-sale ratio and an average of 30 days on market.

This is one of the rare segments where buyers have meaningful negotiating power. The gap between condo and single family performance is widening. Single family homes are selling at 106% of list in an average of 19 days; condos are selling at 102% in 30 days. For buyers who are flexible on property type, the condo market offers relative value and less competition.

• Sunnyvale condos: $1.4M median, 44 sold, 103% of list
• Mountain View condos: $1.55M median, 27 sold, 106% of list
• San Jose condos: $826K median, 138 sold, 101% of list
• Palo Alto condos: $2.1M median, 11 sold, 105% of list
• Milpitas condos: $1.14M median, 19 sold, 102% of list

Why Are San Mateo County Prices Rising Faster Than Santa Clara?

The nearly 10-point gap in year-over-year median price growth between the two counties (9.69% in San Mateo vs. 0.84% in Santa Clara) deserves examination. Three factors explain most of the divergence.

Supply constraint. San Mateo County has approximately 2 months of inventory compared to Santa Clara's 3.3 months. That difference is significant. When fewer homes are available, each well-priced listing attracts more competitive offers, which pushes closing prices higher.

Composition effect. Santa Clara County's market is much larger and more diverse. San Jose alone accounts for half of all single family sales, and at a $1.74M median, it anchors the county average lower. San Mateo County's cities are more uniformly expensive, with fewer lower-priced submarkets to offset the high end.

Luxury spillover. The AI wealth effect, concentrated in companies headquartered along the 101 corridor, is having an outsized impact on Peninsula communities like Atherton, Menlo Park, and Hillsborough. These buyers are driving San Mateo County's averages up. In Santa Clara County, the same wealth effect is present in Palo Alto and Los Altos, but it is diluted by the county's larger volume of mid-market transactions.

Is Now a Good Time to Buy or Sell in Silicon Valley?

For sellers, the spring window is wide open, especially in San Mateo County. With inventory under 2 months in most cities and homes selling at 107% or more of list price, sellers who price with discipline and invest in presentation are positioned for strong results. The data is clear: March was one of the best months for sellers in the past two years.

For buyers, the picture requires more nuance. In San Mateo County's single family market, competition is fierce and you should expect to offer above asking in most situations. Come prepared with pre-approval, flexible contingencies, and a clear understanding of your ceiling price.

In Santa Clara County, the market offers slightly more breathing room. Days on market are up, overbidding is more modest, and the condo segment in particular presents genuine value for buyers willing to consider attached housing. Cities like San Jose, Milpitas, and Morgan Hill remain accessible entry points for first-time buyers.

One market to watch closely: Mountain View. With OpenAI's new 450,000-square-foot campus bringing hundreds of high-earning employees to the area, and Google continuing to expand, Mountain View's 112% list-to-sale ratio may be a preview of what is coming for nearby cities like Sunnyvale and Santa Clara.

Both counties remain well below the 5-to-6-month inventory threshold that defines a balanced market. Until supply catches up to demand, and there is no indication that it will in 2026, sellers hold the structural advantage across Silicon Valley.

What to Watch in Q2 2026

Three dynamics will shape the market through spring and into summer.

Interest rate trajectory. The Federal Reserve's posture through May and June will determine whether mortgage rates hold near current levels or begin to ease. Even a modest decline could unlock significant pent-up demand from buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines.

Tech earnings and IPO activity. Apple, Google, Meta, and NVIDIA all report in April and May. Strong results, particularly from NVIDIA, tend to have a direct and measurable impact on luxury home demand across the Peninsula. Additionally, several AI companies are rumored to be exploring public offerings in late 2026, which could create a new wave of liquidity.

Inventory patterns. March saw new listings roughly flat year over year in both counties. If that pace holds, the supply-demand imbalance will persist and prices will continue to rise. If new listings accelerate through April and May, as they typically do in a healthy spring market, we could see a slight moderation in overbidding, giving buyers marginally more leverage.

The Silicon Valley housing market in March 2026 was not one story but two. San Mateo County surged on tight inventory and luxury demand. Santa Clara County held steady with broader inventory and a more measured pace. Both remain among the most competitive real estate markets in the country.

What matters most is how these macro trends translate to your specific neighborhood, your specific property, and your specific timeline. The numbers in this report are averages. Your home, your block, and your situation are not average. That is where local expertise makes the difference.

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