The third quarter of 2024 reinforced a theme that has defined Silicon Valley real estate for the past two years: demand continues to outpace supply, prices are climbing, and well-prepared properties sell quickly above asking. Here is a detailed look at how both San Mateo and Santa Clara counties performed from July through September.
San Mateo County: Q3 2024 at a Glance
Pricing
The median single-family home price in San Mateo County averaged $1.98 million across Q3, a 6.5 percent increase over Q3 2023. September closed particularly strong at $2.02 million, marking the first time the monthly median crossed the $2 million threshold. The condo and townhouse segment saw a median of $890,000, up 4.2 percent year-over-year.
Inventory
Active single-family listings averaged 720 per month during Q3, a modest 10 percent increase from Q3 2023. While the uptick provided buyers with marginally more options, months of supply remained well below equilibrium at approximately 1.5 months. The most competitive submarkets — Burlingame, San Carlos, and Menlo Park — stayed below 1.0 months of supply throughout the quarter.
Sales Velocity
Median days on market for sold single-family homes came in at 12 days for Q3, down from 15 days in Q3 2023. The sale-to-list price ratio averaged 105.6 percent, meaning the typical home sold nearly 6 percent above its asking price. Properties priced strategically below market value in top neighborhoods regularly exceeded 110 percent.
Santa Clara County: Q3 2024 at a Glance
Pricing
Santa Clara County's median single-family home price averaged $1.82 million for Q3, a 5.8 percent year-over-year gain. Palo Alto maintained its position as the county's priciest market at a median of $3.88 million, while Cupertino ($2.95 million) and Los Altos ($3.72 million) also posted strong appreciation. The entry-level cities of Milpitas and Santa Clara saw medians near $1.42 million, up roughly 7 percent.
Inventory
The county averaged approximately 1,350 active single-family listings per month during Q3, representing about 1.4 months of supply. New listings were up 12 percent compared to Q3 2023, suggesting more homeowners are testing the market. However, the absorption rate kept pace, preventing any meaningful inventory buildup.
Sales Velocity
The average sold home in Santa Clara County spent 13 days on market during Q3, with the sale-to-list ratio at 106.1 percent. Cupertino and Sunnyvale were the fastest-moving markets, with average days on market of just 8 and 9 days respectively.
Key Trends Across Both Counties
The Luxury Segment Accelerated
Homes priced above $3 million saw the strongest appreciation in both counties, driven by AI-related wealth creation. IPO proceeds, stock appreciation at companies like NVIDIA and Meta, and the influx of AI startup founders created a surge of buyers in the $3 million to $8 million range. Properties in Atherton, Hillsborough, Los Altos Hills, and Woodside were particular beneficiaries.
Rate Sensitivity Remains Stratified
The Fed held rates steady through most of Q3, with mortgage rates hovering near 6.8 percent. This continued to suppress activity in the entry-level segment, where buyers are most rate-sensitive. However, move-up and luxury buyers — many purchasing with 40 to 100 percent cash — were largely unaffected. This created a bifurcated market where the top half outperformed the bottom half.
Condo Market Showed More Balance
The condo and townhouse segment in both counties offered buyers slightly more breathing room, with 2.0 to 2.5 months of supply and sale-to-list ratios closer to 100 to 102 percent. For first-time buyers, the attached-home market remains the most accessible path to homeownership on the Peninsula.
Looking Ahead to Q4
Seasonal patterns suggest a modest slowdown in new listings through the holidays, which typically tightens inventory further and supports pricing. The Fed's September rate cut — the first in over four years — may draw some sidelined buyers back into the market, potentially increasing competition as we head into 2025.
For sellers, the data supports listing now rather than waiting for spring if your home is prepared. For buyers, the holiday quarter historically offers a window of reduced competition, and the combination of improving rates and persistent appreciation makes a compelling case for acting sooner rather than later.
I publish these market updates quarterly and am always available to discuss how the data applies to your specific neighborhood and goals. Reach out anytime.