Quick read
- San Mateo County recorded 366 single-family sales in July, down 15.7% from June's 434, with the median at $2,123,000 and sellers averaging 106% of list price.
- Santa Clara County recorded 711 single-family sales, down 13.4% from 821, with the median at $1,900,000 and sellers averaging 102% of list price.
- San Mateo County supply tightened to 1.0 months, the lowest reading of 2026, even as average days on market lengthened from 20 to 25.
- Atherton posted a $12,125,000 median across 12 sales at 108% of list, while Gilroy carried 97 active listings at 99% of list. The two ends of the Peninsula are running different markets.
- The Santa Clara County condominium segment is the softest tier: median price per square foot fell to $673 from $743 in May, and days on market extended to 41.
What Happened to the Silicon Valley Housing Market in July 2026?
July delivered the clearest example this year of a market that thins without discounting.
Across the two Peninsula counties, 1,077 single-family homes closed escrow, down from 1,255 in June. Combined single-family sales volume fell from $3.25 billion to $2.84 billion. On almost any other measure, a 14% drop in transactions would read as a market turning. The prices say otherwise.
San Mateo County's single-family median settled at $2,123,000, down 1.3% from June. Santa Clara County's settled at $1,900,000, down 0.5%. Sellers in San Mateo County received an average of 106% of list price. Sellers in Santa Clara County received 102%. Those are not the numbers of a market where buyers have gained leverage on price.
What buyers gained in July was time. Average days on market rose five days in both counties, from 20 to 25 in San Mateo County and from 22 to 27 in Santa Clara County. That is the most useful thing in this month's data. The pace loosened. The pricing did not.
| Measure | May | June | July |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Mateo median price | $2,200,000 | $2,150,000 | $2,123,000 |
| San Mateo homes sold | 375 | 434 | 366 |
| San Mateo avg. days on market | 22 | 20 | 25 |
| San Mateo % of list received | 107% | 107% | 106% |
| San Mateo months of supply | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.0 |
| Santa Clara median price | $2,050,000 | $1,910,000 | $1,900,000 |
| Santa Clara homes sold | 823 | 821 | 711 |
| Santa Clara avg. days on market | 19 | 22 | 27 |
| Santa Clara % of list received | 104% | 103% | 102% |
Source: SAMCAR and SCCAOR, data collected and compiled by MLSListings, Inc.
Why Did San Mateo County Supply Tighten While Homes Took Longer to Sell?
The most interesting line in the July San Mateo County data is a contradiction that resolves on inspection.
Months of supply fell to 1.0, the tightest reading of 2026, down from 1.1 in June and 1.4 in May. Active inventory dropped to 411 homes from 454. New listings dropped to 342 from 382. By every supply measure, the county got tighter. And yet average days on market went up.
Those two figures normally move in the same direction. When they separate, the usual explanation is a change in the composition of what sold rather than a change in buyer appetite, and that is what July shows.
The month's closings leaned toward the upper tier. Hillsborough recorded nine sales at a $7,470,000 median and averaged 51 days on market. Woodside recorded eight sales at a $4,731,500 median and averaged 57 days. Portola Valley recorded eight sales at a $5,300,000 median and averaged 46 days.
Estate properties carry longer marketing timelines by nature. The buyer pool is smaller, the due diligence is heavier, and the decision takes longer. A month weighted toward that tier pulls the countywide average up without telling you anything about how quickly a $2.2M San Carlos home is trading.
The counter-evidence sits in the same table. Burlingame closed 29 sales in an average of 13 days at 109% of list, on 0.4 months of supply. San Mateo closed 59 sales, the county's highest count, in an average of 16 days at 108% of list, also on 0.4 months of supply. Millbrae ran at 0.2 months of supply.
The mid-market corridor between Burlingame and Redwood City did not slow down in July. The county average did.
Which Peninsula Cities Led on Price and Speed?
The percent-of-list-price figure is the cleanest single measure of competitive pressure, because it strips out the mix problems that distort medians. Here is where July's pressure concentrated.
| City | Median price | Sold | Avg. DOM | % of list |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atherton | $12,125,000 | 12 | 20 | 108% |
| Los Altos Hills | $7,887,900 | 10 | 22 | 98% |
| Hillsborough | $7,470,000 | 9 | 51 | 106% |
| Portola Valley | $5,300,000 | 8 | 46 | 97% |
| Los Altos | $4,850,000 | 25 | 27 | 105% |
| Saratoga | $4,740,000 | 20 | 35 | 102% |
| Woodside | $4,731,500 | 8 | 57 | 97% |
| Palo Alto | $4,280,000 | 31 | 17 | 108% |
| Burlingame | $3,738,000 | 29 | 13 | 109% |
| Menlo Park | $3,375,000 | 22 | 22 | 105% |
| Mountain View | $3,038,051 | 20 | 24 | 106% |
| Cupertino | $2,850,000 | 19 | 35 | 110% |
| San Carlos | $2,702,500 | 22 | 22 | 109% |
| Redwood City | $2,503,000 | 49 | 20 | 107% |
| Sunnyvale | $2,480,000 | 45 | 20 | 105% |
| San Mateo | $2,070,000 | 59 | 16 | 108% |
| Santa Clara | $1,900,000 | 41 | 27 | 105% |
| San Jose | $1,670,500 | 350 | 27 | 102% |
| Morgan Hill | $1,421,000 | 36 | 33 | 100% |
| Gilroy | $1,100,000 | 37 | 45 | 99% |
Source: SAMCAR and SCCAOR, data collected and compiled by MLSListings, Inc. This is a selection across both counties and every price tier, not the full city list. Cities with fewer than five closed sales are left out entirely, because a single transaction can move their median by seven figures.
Three readings stand out.
Cupertino led on competitive pressure at 110% of list. That is the highest figure in either county among cities with meaningful sales volume, and it came alongside a median that fell to $2,850,000 from $3,350,000 in June. Both facts are true at once. Fewer large homes traded, which pulled the median down, while the homes that did trade drew bidding well above asking. It is a clean illustration of why a falling median is not the same thing as falling values.
Atherton posted the highest price per square foot in either county at $2,393, though on only 12 sales. Palo Alto was next at $2,126, and it is the more useful benchmark of the two, drawn from 31 sales at 108% of list in an average of 17 days. For buyers pricing a Palo Alto purchase, $2,126 per square foot is the number to work from this month.
South Santa Clara County is running a different market entirely. Gilroy carried 97 active listings against 37 sales, averaged 45 days on market, and settled at 99% of list. Morgan Hill carried 85 listings against 36 sales at 100% of list. Those are balanced-market readings sitting 40 miles from towns where sellers are clearing 108%.
"A slower month is not a softer month. In July, Peninsula buyers got more time to think and no discount to show for it. Those are two different kinds of leverage, and only one of them changes what you pay."
How Is the Peninsula Condo Market Performing?
The Santa Clara County condominium and townhome segment is where the softening is real rather than compositional.
The median held roughly flat at $904,500 in July, down from $910,000 in June. Underneath that steady headline, the per-square-foot figure tells a different story. Median price per square foot fell to $673, down from $696 in June and $743 in May, a decline of 9.4% across two months. Average days on market extended to 41, up from 36 in June and 32 in May.
Supply is the pressure point. The county carried 931 listed condominiums and townhomes against 288 closings in July. San Jose alone accounted for 496 of those listings and 159 of the sales.
This segment still cleared 101% of list price on average, so it is a slower market rather than a distressed one. But it is the one tier of the Peninsula market where a patient buyer has genuine room to negotiate right now, and it is worth watching over the balance of the year.
Want to see how your city compares on price, pace, and percent of list received? The free home price benchmark calculator is now loaded with July 2026 closed-sale data for 41 Peninsula and Silicon Valley cities.
What Does the July Data Mean If You Are Buying or Selling?
The practical read on this month depends almost entirely on which side of the transaction you are on and which tier you are in.
If you are selling
- The pricing environment did not weaken. A 106% average in San Mateo County and 102% in Santa Clara County means correctly priced homes are still drawing competition. What softened is how fast that competition arrives.
- Budget more time on market than a spring listing would have needed. Five extra days on the county average is not a crisis, but a plan built on a June timeline may run short. That matters most if your sale is tied to a purchase closing date.
- Preparation is doing more work than it was three months ago. In a month where buyers have time to compare, the listing that shows best on day one is the one that still draws multiple offers. The ones that get shopped against are the ones that arrive unfinished.
- Estate sellers should plan for a longer runway. Hillsborough averaged 51 days and Woodside 57. Those timelines are normal for the tier and are not a signal of weakness, but they should shape your expectations before you list.
If you are buying
- You have more time, not more discount. Do not read a longer days-on-market figure as an invitation to write below asking in the mid-Peninsula corridor. Burlingame, San Mateo and San Carlos all cleared at or above 108% of list.
- The negotiating room is concentrated. Santa Clara County condominiums, south county single-family homes in Gilroy and Morgan Hill, and the estate tier in Woodside and Portola Valley, which settled at 97% of list, are where July's data shows actual give.
- Watch price per square foot rather than the median. Medians move on mix. In July, San Mateo County's median fell while its price per square foot rose slightly to $1,241. Santa Clara County's fell to $1,050 from $1,093. Per-square-foot figures track value more honestly month to month.
- Full underwriting still decides close outcomes. At 1.0 months of supply in San Mateo County, the homes worth having still trade quickly. Time to think is not the same as time to arrange financing.
For the longer view on how these monthly readings fit together, the Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Report tracks the trend across the year, and the June 2026 Silicon Valley housing market report covers the month that set up July's slowdown.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: Did Silicon Valley home prices fall in July 2026?
A: Barely. San Mateo County's single-family median moved from $2,150,000 in June to $2,123,000 in July, a decline of 1.3%. Santa Clara County moved from $1,910,000 to $1,900,000, a decline of 0.5%. Both counties still recorded sellers receiving more than list price on average, 106% in San Mateo County and 102% in Santa Clara County. What changed materially in July was transaction count, not price. Sales fell 15.7% in San Mateo County and 13.4% in Santa Clara County.
Q: Why did days on market rise while inventory fell in San Mateo County?
A: San Mateo County's months of supply tightened from 1.1 to 1.0 while average days on market rose from 20 to 25. Those two figures usually move together, and when they separate it generally reflects a change in what is selling rather than a change in demand. July's closings leaned toward higher-priced properties, including nine Hillsborough sales averaging 51 days and eight Woodside sales averaging 57 days. Larger estates typically carry longer marketing timelines than entry-level homes, so a month weighted toward that tier pulls the countywide average up even while the overall supply of listings shrinks.
Q: Which Peninsula cities were strongest in July 2026?
A: Measured by percent of list price received, Cupertino led at 110%, followed by Burlingame, San Carlos and Daly City at 109%, and Atherton, Palo Alto, San Mateo and South San Francisco at 108%. Burlingame combined that strength with speed, clearing 29 sales in an average of 13 days on 0.4 months of supply. Atherton recorded the highest price per square foot in either county at $2,393, on 12 sales, with Palo Alto next at $2,126 across 31 sales. Brisbane recorded a higher figure still at 124%, but on only two closed sales, which is too thin a sample to read as a city-level signal.
Q: Is the Silicon Valley condo market softening?
A: The Santa Clara County condominium and townhome segment is the softest part of the Peninsula market right now. The median held near flat at $904,500 in July, but median price per square foot fell to $673 from $743 in May, a decline of 9.4% across two months. Average days on market extended to 41 from 32 over the same period, and 931 units were listed against 288 closings. Sellers still averaged 101% of list price, so the segment is slower rather than distressed.
Q: Is July a reliable month for reading the Silicon Valley market?
A: July is one of the noisier months of the year. Buyers and sellers travel, closings that would have landed in July often slide into August, and the smallest Peninsula cities record so few sales that a single transaction moves their median. Pescadero and Montara each recorded one sale in July. The most reliable reads in a July report are the countywide figures, which draw on 366 San Mateo County sales and 711 Santa Clara County sales, and the higher-volume cities such as San Jose, San Mateo, Redwood City and Sunnyvale.
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The bottom line
July was a quieter month that did not become a cheaper one. About 14% fewer Peninsula homes traded, medians moved less than 1.5% in either county, and sellers still averaged 106% of list in San Mateo County and 102% in Santa Clara County. Supply tightened to 1.0 months in San Mateo County, so the extra five days buyers gained reflects a heavier mix of estate sales rather than a market losing its footing. The genuine openings for buyers are narrow and specific: Santa Clara County condominiums, south county single-family homes, and the estate tier that settled at 97% of list.
City medians move on what happened to trade that month, which is why a neighborhood-level read beats a county headline every time. Reach out to Lisa for current data on your street.
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