Quick read
- Rates. 7.40 percent on October 15, flat on the week, up from 6.71 in early September. The highest weekly reading since November 2023.
- Inventory. Homes for sale rose 12.3 percent in San Mateo County and 10.9 percent in Santa Clara County from August to September. The average home still closed above asking.
- Insurance. The FAIR Plan's dwelling rates rose an average of 29.1 percent for policies new or renewing from October 15.
- Law. AB 1751 lets qualifying townhome projects skip the public hearing from January 1, 2027, outside the fire zones.
- Dates. Menlo Park's council faces an October 27 deadline on 80 Willow Road. The Fed decides on October 28.
Silicon Valley real estate looks different than it did six weeks ago.
In early September the 30-year fixed was under 7 percent, the Fed hadn't moved since its 2025 cuts, and the summer's thin inventory was the story in both counties. Each of those changed in September.
What follows is the seven stories in order of consequence, with the source and date on every figure, a caveat where one is owed, and what each one means for a buyer or a seller here. Where I have a read of my own, it's labeled as mine.
The market numbers come from the September MLS reports for San Mateo and Santa Clara counties. Every news story is linked in the sources at the end with its date.
What Changed in Silicon Valley Real Estate in October 2026?
Money got more expensive, buyers got more homes to choose from, and owning got more expensive to insure. Two of the seven stories come due in the same week, October 27 and 28.
The stories are numbered so you can copy the list and work it against your own timeline.
Mortgage rates, and the Fed
Freddie Mac's weekly survey put the 30-year fixed at 7.40 percent on October 15, unchanged from the week before. In early September it was 6.71 percent. A year ago, 6.27. The last week it ran higher was November 2023.
Behind it sits the Fed. On September 16 the Federal Reserve raised its target range a quarter point, to 3.75 to 4.00 percent, on a 12 to 0 vote. The statement said "Inflation remains elevated." The Fed sets the overnight rate between banks. Mortgage rates follow the bond market on their own schedule, and the September increase is the backdrop to everything on this list.
CaveatThe Freddie Mac survey tracks conforming loans. Most Peninsula purchase loans are jumbo loans, and your lender's quote will differ.
BuyingRerun your pre-approval at today's rate before you write an offer, so the number in your head matches the number your lender will lend.
SellingThe buyer who toured in September may carry a smaller budget in October.
The thing I'd watch: whether 7.40 holds through the Fed's October 27 and 28 meeting. The decision lands on the 28th.
More homes for sale in both counties
San Mateo County, single-family homes, September: the median sale price was $2,175,000, up 4.8 percent from August. Homes for sale went from 424 to 476, up 12.3 percent in one month. New listings were up 17 percent.
Santa Clara County: the median was $1,880,000, up 1.6 percent. Homes for sale went from 1,104 to 1,224, up 10.9 percent. Closed sales rose 16 percent.
CaveatOne month is one month. The average home still closed above its asking price, 106 percent of list in San Mateo County and 103 percent in Santa Clara. San Mateo County's average days on market moved from 25 to 28, and part of that is four sales in Portola Valley that averaged 552 days. Four homes moved the county number.
BuyingMore to choose from than in the summer, and more time on the homes that sit.
SellingMore competition, so price and preparation carry more weight than they did in June.
The thing I'd watch: new listings against closings. San Mateo County logged 420 new listings and 319 closings in September. If that gap holds through October, buyers get more room.
Insurance: the FAIR Plan's 29.1 percent increase
Starting October 15, the California FAIR Plan raised its dwelling rates an average of 29.1 percent for new and renewing policies. It had asked for 35.8. The FAIR Plan is the state's insurer of last resort, where a home lands when regular carriers won't write it, which is more common near the hills and open space.
Per Insurance Business on September 30, State Farm and Allstate remain closed to new homeowners policies in California. Mercury, Farmers and CSAA are writing statewide.
CaveatWhich carriers will quote a specific address depends on the address. If the home you want sits near open space, find out before you fall for it.
BuyingGet an insurance quote during your contingency period, before you remove it.
SellingIf the home is on the FAIR Plan, have the current policy and premium ready. The buyer's lender will ask.
The thing I'd watch: the renewal notices this winter. Insurance changes the math on a house.
AB 1751, the new townhome law
On September 29 the governor signed 34 housing bills. The one to know if you want to own is AB 1751, the Missing Middle Townhome Ownership Act. It requires cities to approve qualifying townhome projects without a public hearing: up to three stories, up to 150 units, an average home of 1,750 square feet or less, on lots as small as 600 square feet.
It applies to land zoned for apartments and to vacant lots zoned single-family. Projects of 11 units or more must make at least 10 percent of the homes affordable. It leaves out high and very high fire hazard zones, sites covered by SB 79, historic sites and rent-controlled housing. San Francisco is exempt.
It takes effect January 1, 2027. The same package covered ADUs and HOA rules, and the governor's release in the sources lists those bills.
CaveatNothing gets built on January 2. A project still has to be designed, financed and permitted, and that takes years.
BuyingMore for-sale townhomes over time, outside the fire zones.
OwningIf you're near a multifamily-zoned or vacant lot outside the fire zones, this can change what goes up there.
The thing I'd watch: which cities see the first applications.
Menlo Park and the 39-story tower
At 80 Willow Road, the former Sunset Magazine campus, a developer has proposed three towers: 665 apartments, a hotel, office space and a preschool, with the tallest at 39 stories. It was filed under the builder's remedy, a state rule that limits how a city can turn down certain housing projects when its housing plan was out of compliance.
On September 29 the Menlo Park City Council declined to approve it. The state Attorney General's office had written to the city in July, saying the city changed its reasons. The developer says the council has until October 27 to approve, or the matter goes to court. On September 30 a council member said a possible buyer for the campus has come forward.
CaveatI don't predict courts, and I won't start here.
OwningIf you're near Willow Road, this one is close to home.
WatchingFrom anywhere else on the Peninsula, it's a test of how far a city can push back on density under state law, right on the Menlo Park and Palo Alto line.
The thing I'd watch: October 27.
The AI money question
On October 13, CNBC reported that Anthropic was showing third-quarter financials to institutional investors as it prepares to go public. Reuters reported a November listing. CNBC could not confirm a date. On October 14 the SF Standard reported that OpenAI's listing has moved to 2027.
Meanwhile, AI companies keep taking office space here. The Silicon Valley Business Journal reported in September that Physical Intelligence leased the entire 233,500-square-foot Pear Village building in Mountain View.
CaveatAn IPO is not cash on day one. Employee shares usually sit under a lockup, and Redfin's analysis notes lockups run up to 180 days. A November listing would put most of that buying power into 2027.
SellingPrice your home for the buyers who are here this fall.
BuyingAny IPO money would likely reach the market after lockups end, which points to 2027.
The thing I'd watch: the filing itself. A date on paper is worth more than a rumor.
Caltrain's ridership year
For the year ending June 2026, Caltrain carried 12.6 million trips, up 37.6 percent, about 40,800 on an average weekday. Riders scored it 4.4 out of 5 for the second year in a row. Ridership is still about 80 percent of where it was before COVID, and safety upgrades at all 41 grade crossings are expected by January 2027.
So if the train felt fuller this year, you weren't imagining it.
Why it's hereLand near stations is where SB 79 is changing the zoning, so the train is part of the housing story now. The SB 79 playbook covers the half mile around each station.
The thing I'd watch: the station areas, where the zoning and the ridership now point the same way.
Which Dates Matter for Peninsula Buyers and Sellers This Month?
Two. October 27 is the developer's deadline for Menlo Park's council on 80 Willow Road, and October 28 is the Fed's rate decision. The rest of the calendar explains how the month got here.
- September 16, 2026The Federal Reserve raises its target range to 3.75 to 4.00 percent, its first increase since the 2025 cuts.
- September 29, 2026The governor signs 34 housing bills, including AB 1751. The same evening, the Menlo Park City Council declines to approve the 80 Willow Road towers.
- October 15, 2026Freddie Mac reports 7.40 percent for the second week. The FAIR Plan's 29.1 percent average increase takes effect on new and renewing policies.
- October 22, 2026Freddie Mac's next weekly survey. If the number moved, rerun the loan table below with your lender.
- October 27, 2026Menlo Park. The developer's stated deadline for council approval of 80 Willow Road.
- October 28, 2026The Fed. The rate decision from the October 27 and 28 meeting.
- January 1, 2027AB 1751 takes effect. Caltrain's grade-crossing upgrades are expected to be complete.
How Does a 7.4 Percent Rate Change One Peninsula Loan?
On a $1.74 million loan, the move from 6.71 to 7.40 percent adds about $800 a month to principal and interest. Hold the payment where it was in September instead, and the loan it buys is about $117,000 smaller.
The loan amount is 80 percent of San Mateo County's September median, so the table describes a typical county purchase rather than any one house.
| Loan of $1,740,000, 30-year fixed | 6.71% (Sept 3) | 7.40% (Oct 15) | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Principal and interest, monthly | $11,239 | $12,047 | +$808 |
| Loan an $11,239 payment buys | $1,740,000 | $1,623,297 | about $117,000 less |
Illustration at the Freddie Mac survey rate, 30-year amortization, principal and interest only. A loan this size is a jumbo loan and the survey tracks conforming loans, so get a quote from your lender for your own numbers.
The payment is one half of the story. How buyers are structuring offers at these rates, including buydowns and seller credits, is in Buying a Home in Silicon Valley When Mortgage Rates Hit 7.4%.
Are There More Homes for Sale on the Peninsula Right Now?
Yes. Both counties added homes for sale faster than they closed them in September, and both still averaged above asking.
| Single-family, September 2026 | San Mateo County | August | Santa Clara County | August |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price | $2,175,000 | $2,075,000 | $1,880,000 | $1,850,000 |
| Homes for sale | 476 | 424 | 1,224 | 1,104 |
| New listings | 420 | 358 | 943 | 872 |
| Closed sales | 319 | 321 | 726 | 624 |
| Average days on market | 28 | 25 | 27 | 25 |
| Sale price as a share of list | 106% | 107% | 103% | 103% |
Source: SAMCAR and SCCAOR monthly reports via MLSListings, single-family residential, county summary rows, September and August 2026.
Those are county numbers, and every town on the Peninsula runs its own. The Silicon Valley relocation guide puts ten Peninsula and Silicon Valley towns on one sheet, with the median, days on market and share of list for each. The full September read, town by town, is in the September 2026 market report.
Selling this fall? More listings and a smaller buyer budget both argue for knowing where your home sits before it's listed. Lisa's Page One shows a seller that position inside this month's numbers, before anything goes on the MLS.
What this means for you
If you're buying, rerun the pre-approval at today's rate, get the insurance quote inside your contingency period, and use the extra inventory to be choosier about the house and the terms.
If you're selling, you're pricing into more competition and a buyer pool whose budgets shrank in September. Preparation and the first two weeks on market carry the sale. Any IPO buyers arrive after lockups, which points to 2027.
Either way, mark October 27 and 28. If one of these seven changes your timeline, talk with me, and we'll start with the timeline, then the house.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the mortgage rate in Silicon Valley in October 2026?
Freddie Mac's weekly survey put the national 30-year fixed rate at 7.40 percent on October 15, 2026, unchanged from the week before, up from 6.71 percent in early September and 6.27 percent a year earlier. It's the highest weekly reading since November 2023.
The survey tracks conforming loans. Most Peninsula purchase loans are jumbo loans, so a lender's quote for a Silicon Valley home will differ from the survey figure.
Is Silicon Valley a buyer's market in October 2026?
No. Homes for sale rose 12.3 percent in San Mateo County and 10.9 percent in Santa Clara County from August to September 2026, and new listings outpaced closings in both counties.
Even so, the average single-family home still closed above its asking price, at 106 percent of list in San Mateo County and 103 percent in Santa Clara County. Buyers have more to choose from than they did in the summer. Sellers have more competition.
How much did the California FAIR Plan raise rates and who does it affect?
The California FAIR Plan raised its dwelling rates an average of 29.1 percent for new and renewing policies on or after October 15, 2026. It had requested 35.8 percent.
The FAIR Plan is the state's insurer of last resort, where a home lands when regular carriers won't write it, which is more common for homes in high fire hazard areas near the hills and open space. As of September 30, 2026, State Farm and Allstate remained closed to new homeowners policies in California, while Mercury, Farmers and CSAA were writing statewide.
What does AB 1751 do for townhome buyers in California?
AB 1751, the Missing Middle Townhome Ownership Act, was signed September 29, 2026 and takes effect January 1, 2027. It requires cities to approve qualifying townhome projects without a public hearing: up to three stories, up to 150 units, an average home of 1,750 square feet or less, on lots as small as 600 square feet, on land zoned for apartments or on vacant lots zoned single-family. Projects of 11 or more units must make at least 10 percent of the homes affordable.
High and very high fire hazard zones, SB 79 transit sites, historic sites and rent-controlled housing are excluded, and San Francisco is exempt. Over time it means more for-sale townhomes outside the fire zones. Nothing gets built on January 2, because a project still has to be designed, financed and permitted.
When would an Anthropic IPO affect Peninsula home prices?
Later than the listing date. CNBC reported on October 13, 2026 that Anthropic was showing third-quarter financials to institutional investors ahead of an IPO, and Reuters reported a November listing that CNBC could not confirm.
Employee shares usually sit under a lockup, and Redfin's analysis notes lockups run up to 180 days. If a listing happens in November, most of that buying power would reach the housing market in 2027. Sellers this fall are pricing for the buyers who are here now. The filing itself is the thing to watch, because a date on paper is worth more than a rumor.
Sources
- Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, week of October 15, 2026: 7.40 percent, and the September 3 and year-ago readings. Weekly history via FRED, MORTGAGE30US.
- Federal Reserve statement, September 16, 2026: target range 3.75 to 4.00 percent, vote 12 to 0. Meeting dates from the FOMC calendar.
- SAMCAR and SCCAOR monthly market reports via MLSListings, single-family residential, September and August 2026, county summary rows and the Portola Valley city row.
- KQED, California FAIR Plan 29.1 percent rate increase, and Insurance Business, September 30, 2026: effective date, requested 35.8 percent, carrier status.
- Office of the Governor, housing bill signing, September 29, 2026, and the chaptered text of AB 1751.
- Palo Alto Daily Post, September 29, 2026: 80 Willow Road, the council decision, the Attorney General's letter, the October 27 deadline and the possible buyer.
- CNBC, October 13, 2026 and The San Francisco Standard, October 14, 2026: Anthropic IPO preparation, the reported November listing, OpenAI's 2027 timing.
- Silicon Valley Business Journal, September 23, 2026: Physical Intelligence's Pear Village lease, from the headline and subhead of a subscriber article.
- Redfin, July 9, 2026: lockup periods of up to 180 days.
- Caltrain FY2026 ridership report, Mass Transit, October 7, 2026, and the Caltrain board liaison report, October 1, 2026: trips, weekday average, satisfaction, share of pre-COVID ridership, grade crossings.
Market figures are from the SAMCAR and SCCAOR single-family reports for September 2026 and may be revised. Payment figures are illustrations at the Freddie Mac survey rate; get a quote from your lender for your own loan. This article is general information about the market and recent news and is no substitute for legal, tax, insurance or lending advice. Information deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Equal Housing Opportunity.
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